It is understandable if you thought from the title that this piece might be about our stock market tumble, but after a brief paragraph it won't be.
In a lot of ways, the top and bottom of a market is the wrong question to ask an individual investor. My real advice [1 -- Disclaimer, below] is first be super frugal so you have money to invest. Then look into a portfolio strategy that uses several asset classes, such as the Permanent Portfolio (see also) or the All Weather Portfolio (see also). You could use the portfolio as a framework and if you think you have a smart idea, you could work that bet in as a way of tilting a portion your portfolio instead of going all-in.
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Below is the edited version of a response I made in a thread on Reddit.
In a lot of ways, the top and bottom of a market is the wrong question to ask an individual investor. My real advice [1 -- Disclaimer, below] is first be super frugal so you have money to invest. Then look into a portfolio strategy that uses several asset classes, such as the Permanent Portfolio (see also) or the All Weather Portfolio (see also). You could use the portfolio as a framework and if you think you have a smart idea, you could work that bet in as a way of tilting a portion your portfolio instead of going all-in.
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Below is the edited version of a response I made in a thread on Reddit.
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I wish I could find someone who has done some systematic, high quality work on what some scenarios for down-ward limits would be because the idea fascinates me. However, if no one else has done the work, I don't think I'm the right person to. Here's some thoughts, though:
One source of limits which we cannot not go lower than unless we just royally mess up is all the bush-craft projects people already do as a hobby. I am thinking of the Primitive Technology YouTube channel. He has great skills, sure, but he's drawing on knowledge of mechanics, aerodynamics, hydraulics, ergonomic design, etc. And it's not like he needs several semesters of college classes in each of these fields. The broad outline of what is possible is the fruit of centuries of people creating and tinkering within civilization, and the outline is often enough to work with. People will have wheels. I hope they'll keep germ theory to know to bathe, hand wash, sterilize [2]. Rocket stoves are kind of hippy stuff, but by golly they really do converse wood. Energy-descent humans will have drills, pumps, wheelbarrows, etc.
Another way to pose the question is what time could serve as a good "comp" for how far down we could go? The 1750s? 1650s? 1340s? I could see electricity for the super-wealthy. I don't see a reason why some group can't keep calculus. In that case, I think there can be precision engineering. . . for those able to pay for time and resources.
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[1] This writing is for entertainment purposes only. The information in this blog/forum is distributed on an "As Is'' basis, without warranty of any kind. The site owner may have a financial relationship with some of the companies or products mentioned on the blog. Advertisement does not imply endorsement. Information might not be completely comprehensive and some readers may want to consult additional sources. This blog/forum does not contain professional advice. For professional advice, consult a professional. By reading this blog/forum you acknowledge full responsibility for your actions with respect to any loss or damage caused or alleged to be caused directly or indirectly in connection with the blog/forum. Last edited March 9th, 2020.
[1] This writing is for entertainment purposes only. The information in this blog/forum is distributed on an "As Is'' basis, without warranty of any kind. The site owner may have a financial relationship with some of the companies or products mentioned on the blog. Advertisement does not imply endorsement. Information might not be completely comprehensive and some readers may want to consult additional sources. This blog/forum does not contain professional advice. For professional advice, consult a professional. By reading this blog/forum you acknowledge full responsibility for your actions with respect to any loss or damage caused or alleged to be caused directly or indirectly in connection with the blog/forum. Last edited March 9th, 2020.
[2] I will say this, though, traditional cheese makers (at least the ones I read about coming from England) knew to sterilize instruments, changing out boiling water again and again in the process. They just didn't know that's what they were doing. Germ theory shows the value of all correct theories: being able to extend an idea into multiple domains.
