Sunday, January 21, 2018

Predictions for 2018

The number of deaths from drug overdose will be over 50,000. 70%  Data point. [Yes, but I'm happy to say the rate decline source]

The suicide rate in the U.S. will be highest recorded. 60%  Update: highest since WWII.

2018 will be one of 3 hottest years ever recorded.  80%

The Warriors will win the NBA title 80%

Ratings for NBA finals will be lower than 2017. 60%

I make more money in 2018 that 2017.  80%.

One of my blog posts will get over 1,000 views.  70%

On-Going Multi-Year Predictions (All from 2017)


2017-A. US will experience recession within 5 years. (ie by 2022) 80%

If 2017-A. . .
    2017-A1 Multiple banks/big financial institutions will fail. 70%

           If 2017-A1 . . .   
               2017-A2. Bankers will be punished more severally than after 2008. 90%   (nul, since conditional was void). 

[Looks like I didn't understand how effectively the Fed can continue to create liquidity].

2017-B. Trump will not serve full term 60%   [Much, much less confident now, would probably now make it 3%]
2017-C. Dems will not re-take Senate in 2018. 80%
2017-D. Dems will not gain net-seats in Senate 2018. 60%
2017-E. I will do 100 push ups in a set by 2020. 70%
2017-F. I will not work again as full-time teacher next 5 years. 60%  I'm already back at it!