Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Notes on New Hampshire

This from an email I sent to a friend:

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You've been interested in the election, so I will add my take from last night: if the media had the same contempt for either Klob or Butti they have for Bernie they would sit on the fact that they cost each other the win.  As it is, contempt brain is stupid brain, so instead it is back to ignoring Bernie, trying to make 3rd the real winner, 2nd the next story, and 1st an after-thought.  This is part of the reason people hate them, but they really can't stop themselves. They are too clever by half, and then ready to gaslight when called out.

Actual political competence would include a call to winnow the field down, at least by Super Tuesday.  If we are looking at Klob, Butti, Money-berg, with the possibility of Uncle Joe resuscitated by South Carolina, then they are giving Bernie a free-roll -- he may have a lower chance of getting a majority of delegates, but he'll be the only one with any chance.  And do party elites really want to screw with a convention battle?  See what I mean about incompetence?

A three-steps ahead, bold take on the conditional: if they take it away from Bernie at the convention they damn well better give it to someone isn't running. [1]  John Kerry could be an option.  Al Gore would be interesting, though I'm not sure he would want to do it.  Fun fact: Butti won last night among voters who said climate change was the most important issue.  There is a huge appetite in the party to deal with climate but not deal income inequality.

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[1] Do they realize this?  It's basic psychology involving resentment and loss aversion.  So no, they probably don't get this, preferring to protect their own sunk costs.  So much for #resistance.