I) Slate Star Codex Predictions
I was inspired to make this list of predictions by the list from Slate Star Codex. The first heuristic I am using is taking the predictions made there that I know enough about to agree with. (Update: only fair that I link to this interactive tool that was put up for the Slate Star Codex community to rate and make predictions).
1. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 80%
2. North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 95%
3. No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 90%
4. …in any First World country: 80%
5. Assad will remain President of Syria: 80%
6. Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 90%
7. ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 90%
8. ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 60%
9. Libya to remain a mess: 80%
2. North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 95%
3. No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 90%
4. …in any First World country: 80%
5. Assad will remain President of Syria: 80%
6. Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 90%
7. ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 90%
8. ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 60%
9. Libya to remain a mess: 80%
EUROPE
10. Theresa May remains PM of Britain: 90%
11. Fewer refugees admitted (to EU) 2017 than 2016: 95%
11. Fewer refugees admitted (to EU) 2017 than 2016: 95%
ECONOMICS
12. Oil will end the year higher than $50 a barrel: 60%
13. Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 60%
12. Oil will end the year higher than $50 a barrel: 60%
13. Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 60%
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
14. Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017: 80%
15. No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump: 70%
16. Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins: 80%
17. Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton: 90%
18. US GDP growth lower than in 2016: 60%
19. US unemployment to be higher at end of year than beginning: 60%
20. Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent: 80%
21. …lower than forty percent: 60%
15. No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump: 70%
16. Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins: 80%
17. Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton: 90%
20. Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent: 80%
21. …lower than forty percent: 60%
II) My Own Predictions
22. Either James Harden or Russ Westbrook is NBA MVP. 90% (confirmed 6/26)
24. Warriors win NBA title. 70% (538 has it at 44% as I write this). (confirmed 6/12)
I do not feel bound by 1-year predictions, so I add:
25. US will experience recession within 5 years. 80%
If 25. . .
25a. Multiple banks/big financial institutions will fail. 70%
If 25a . . .
25b. Bankers will be punished more severally than after 2008. 90%
If 25. . .
25a. Multiple banks/big financial institutions will fail. 70%
If 25a . . .
25b. Bankers will be punished more severally than after 2008. 90%
26. Trump will not serve full term 60%
27. Dems will not re-take Senate in 2018. 80%
28. Dems will not gain net-seats in Senate 2018. 60%
(No prediction on the House 2018).
27. Dems will not re-take Senate in 2018. 80%
28. Dems will not gain net-seats in Senate 2018. 60%
(No prediction on the House 2018).
Personal Predictions -- 1 year
32. I will not achieve 100 push ups in a set. 70%
33. I will finish War and Peace. 60%
35. I will build something with gridbeam. 90% (CONFIRMED 2/18)
36. I will have over 1,000 twitter followers 70% (you can be one @KeithHudd) (CONFIRMED 1/19)
38. I will have my biggest vegetable harvest I've ever had. 90% (We'll call it a push. . . )
Personal Predictions -- multi-year
