Sunday, February 19, 2017

Topic: Modularity

As I have begun to dip my feet in the waters gridbeam, I have began to think more about why it is so cool.   Three things stick out: 1) modularity 2) ability to stack components super efficiently and 3) open source.

I have had a lot of fun with my first few projects, and I am convinced it is a great technology.  I am going to stock up on some more metal gridbeam. nuts, bolts and washers.  I believe, in a very literal way, that this will be better than money in the bank.

I started researching other designs in the "nomadic furniture" school of thought (here's an insanely good example) and saw that joints could be made just out of the material itself, such as a mortise and tenon joint.

Post-apocalyse bonus.  You can make mortise and tenon joints just hand-tools.



So there is no need for nuts, bolts etc to make the joints work.  And so it seems to simply be a design problem to make it modular.  So here are three examples of the kind of "wow, it just clicks into place" brilliance of modularity.

1.



2.



3.




It's too bad these projects aren't presented as open-source and free.

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Consumerism, Authoritarianism . . . and Ferris Bueller

This country has had a lot of closet authoritarians for quite some time. Now they feel they can be loud and proud.  This came to my mind recently with Trump's "temporary" Muslim ban.  It was signed at the end of business hours on a Friday, so there was no time for clarifications, trainings, or orders of what to do with ambiguous cases or when potential checks and balances come into play.  Instead, we saw bottom-up authoritarianism to sync with the top-down:  
Attitudes toward democracy are in strong decline. (See this New York Times piece). I think one factor in this rise of authoritarianism is the flip-side of entitlement, consumerism, and the cult of progress.  We are conditioned so that each new advance immediately becomes the new baseline, and we must improve on that.  So many desires have already been fulfilled that our next set of desires are based on convenience, and we perceive that we need the speed of authority (ideally our own) to get to the new vista of desires.


Democracy, liberty, and decency all slow down immediate gratification, which is unacceptable for the induced-ADD and impulsivity that Americans are conditioned to have.  Under the cult of progress, infinite growth of infinite jest is seen as the key to the way of life.


This entitlement started with the boomers, and has been passed down each generation. At best one could argue that this entitlement has gotten worse, but really, I think that the only thing different with the current group of entitled Americans coming from up through our schools is their complete lack of meta-cognitive towards consumption.


Bypassing the increasingly tedious and overly-reductive Millennial vs Boomer debate (what the hell happened to Gen X?), it looks like this entitlement has cost us our constitutional democracy.

I hope Ferris Bueller's Day Off was worth it.

Wednesday, February 1, 2017

How To Go To Work When Collapse is Near

Alternate Title: A Doomer Reader

====


It started with a tweet.

Somewhat tongue in check, but willing to help if taken up on the offer, I replied saying "Well, then, welcome to the doomosphere.  I have some books and authors to help you research, if serious." Interestingly enough, he took me up on it.  My first thought was to do it as a "tweet-storm," but then I realized that it was going to go a bit long for that.  Collapse has been my main intellectual interest for over a year now.  I want to do justice to those who write about it.

First, I would like to recommend John Michael Greer.  I believe he has the best understanding of collapse.  Luckily enough, this week's post on his site The Archdruid Report is as good any to start with [Update.  He took site down.  Here is a back up.  He now blogs here].   (I would avoid his more political pieces -- he feels he's a little too amped by predicting the Trump win, and a little too eager to see the "salary class" burned).  He also has several books.  I have read and recommend Green Wizardry.

Next up, is Early Retirement Extreme, a systems-theory approach created by Jacob Lund Fisker.  I would start with the quick explanations of the philosophy and the goals, and then browse the web-site.  He shows the kind of tools and skills it will take to either 1) liberate yourself from the rat-race (assuming it continues) or 2) become a type of Renaissance person who can make in a collapsing economy.  Fisker came out of the doomer closet to say as much.  Here is an even better piece where he lays out some doomer predictions.

Thirdly, James Howard Kunstler has a solid grasp on many of the aspects of our decline and writes a weekly rant on his website.  He has a real "old man on a porch" feel, often getting repetitive with terminology and certainly politically incorrect.  He is particularly bad at making specific predictions, though he often in the right direction on trends.  He is just so pissed all the time.  He does have a twitter handle, but doesn't use it much.

Now we get to some people who use twitter often as well as having a body of work about collapse. . .

Vinay Gupta is the go-to for information on dealing with down-side risk.  He tweets and retweets stuff like a maniac as well.  His twitter "about me" really sums up his life's work:
What do you do after it all goes wrong? And what about the poor, for whom it's never yet been right?
The guy is a genius.  He is now trying to play the venture capital game.  His current thinking seems a bit on the optimistic side to me, the basic thesis being that robots and cheap solar panels will lead to a reasonable utopia, but I need someone bullish about the future in my studies. . .

Ian Welsh tweets a lot and writes a lot of longer pieces.  There is a lot of raw pain and disillusionment that comes through because of this, but he is open and responsive on twitter.

Charles Hughes Smith only uses twitter to promote his blog posts, but he writes a lot of them.  He has books for sale on his site about how to be able to more or less make it in a collapse future, but I have not read any of them, so cannot make a recommendation.

I hope of this makes for interesting and helpful reading.  Good luck in building the future.

[Update: I moved the Gridbeam content away because I realized it was a bit off-topic]

Friday, January 13, 2017

2017 Predictions

I) Slate Star Codex Predictions

I was inspired to make this list of predictions by the list from Slate Star Codex.  The first heuristic I am using is taking the predictions made there that I know enough about to agree with.  (Update: only fair that I link to this interactive tool that was put up for the Slate Star Codex community to rate and make predictions).
1. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 80%
2. North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 95%
3. No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 90%
4. …in any First World country: 80%
5. Assad will remain President of Syria: 80%
6. Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 90%
7. ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 90%
8. ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria: 60%
9. Libya to remain a mess: 80%

EUROPE
10. Theresa May remains PM of Britain: 90%
11. Fewer refugees admitted (to EU) 2017 than 2016: 95%
ECONOMICS
12. Oil will end the year higher than $50 a barrel: 60%
13. Dow Jones will not fall > 10% this year: 60%
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION
14. Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017: 80%
15. No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump: 70%
16. Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins: 80%
17. Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton: 90%
18. US GDP growth lower than in 2016: 60%
19. US unemployment to be higher at end of year than beginning: 60%
20. Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent: 80%
21. …lower than forty percent: 60%

II) My Own Predictions

22. Either James Harden or Russ Westbrook is NBA MVP.  90% (confirmed 6/26)
23. James Harden as MVP 60%(dis-confirmed 6/26)
24. Warriors win NBA title. 70% (538 has it at 44% as I write this). (confirmed 6/12)
I do not feel bound by 1-year predictions, so I add:
25.  US will experience recession within 5 years.  80%
If 25. . .
      25a. Multiple banks/big financial institutions will fail.  70%
      If 25a . . .
           25b.  Bankers will be punished more severally than after 2008. 90%
26.  Trump will not serve full term 60%
27. Dems will not re-take Senate in 2018.  80%
28. Dems will not gain net-seats in Senate 2018. 60%
(No prediction on the House 2018).
Personal Predictions -- 1 year
29.  I will weigh below 175 at year end.  80%
30.  At some point I will weigh below 170. 70%
31.  At some point I will weigh below 165. 60%
32.  I will not achieve 100 push ups in a set.  70%
33. I will finish War and Peace.  60%
34. I will finish my own book project (Working title: The Hope Book).  80%
35. I will build something with gridbeam.  90% (CONFIRMED 2/18)
36. I will have over 1,000 twitter followers 70% (you can be one @KeithHudd) (CONFIRMED 1/19)
37. I will put up at least the insulation in stored the garage. 90%
38. I will have my biggest vegetable harvest I've ever had.  90%  (We'll call it a push. . . )

Personal Predictions -- multi-year
39. I will do 100 push ups in a set by 2020. 70%
40. I will not work again as full-time teacher next 5 years. 60%

Friday, December 16, 2016

Of Mentors and Movements

I've been thinking about the actions I am taking and whether they can fit into a bigger movement.

John Michael Greer's latest piece [update site was taken down, here is a copy.] at the Archdruid Report is on the failure of the Peak Oil movement (maybe one could say the collapse of the collapse movement).

JMG is great about answering his commentators, so I asked
 Do you think there is any hope for a de-industrialization/retrotopian movement framed around quality of life issues? 
So much of modern life is ugly, noisy, and boring. Spaces can be made that are the opposite of all of those things and then be used by the home economy as a way to pay for the space and it's joy. 
Or do you think as long as there is a great fear of some competitor taking their status, most people really can't see that truth (after all, reading Walden shows that people have had the opportunity all along, eh?)

To which JMG replied
it would have to be handled very skillfully, to keep from going the way of the voluntary simplicity movement, and being turned into a sales pitch for "simple" products. It might well be worth trying, though
Then by coincidence I stumbled across Vinay Gupat's  fictional piece The Unplugged.  It's an excellent read.

So the real question is whether I am ready to stop being just an individual and be part of a movement?  Or is more correct to ask if I need to pick up the ideas of my mentors and put in the work to make them movements?

If the answer is yes in either case, then the best place to start is in making Norman weird, and, of course, in corrupting the youth.

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

My Translation of the Daodejing

I am working on a translation of the Daodejing.  It is a side-project, and so no promises as to when it will be done.  Also, at least for the first wave, I am selecting my favorite passages to work on.

1
2
3
4
16
23
46
48
63

Daodejing 4

Dao is empty
Its use never exhausted

It is an abyss
From which 10,000 things spring

It blunts sharp edges
unties knots,
and softens bright glares

Becoming one with the dust,
It is an endless pool

I do not know whose child it is.
Its workings are prior to the first Ancestor.

Daodejing 3

3
When "superior people" are not glorified
People are not disappointed
When rare objects are not treasured
People do not steal
When what people desire is not shown off
People's hearts are not confused

Therefore the sage rules by
Emptying hearts and filling bellies,
Weakening willfullness and strengthening bones,
Constantly directing people to be knowledgeless
and desireless,

Instructing the "knowledgeable" to not dare too much,
And, in contrast, practicing wei wu wei
so all things are duly regulated.

Daodejing 2

2
Everyone under heaven recognizes beauty as beauty
and so ugliness exists.
All recognize good, and so bad exists.

Is and isn't grow out of each other
Hard and easy complete each other
Long and short test each other
High and low are interdependent
Sound and voice harmonize
Beginning and end make each other possible

Therefore the Sage
Practices wu wei,
Carries on wordless teaching,
Creates 10,000 things without instruction,
Rears them, but does not make claims,
Influences, but does not oppress them,
Accomplishes, but does not take credit
So accomplishment endures.

Daodejing 1

1
Dao called Dao is not the eternal Dao

Names that can be named are not eternal names.

Nameless: the origin of heaven and earth
Naming: the mother of 10,000 things

Truly, "rid of desire, one can perceive
the Wondrous."
With desire, one can perceive only outcomes.

These have the same source, but different names.
This source we call Mystery
Or more mysterious than any mystery.

The gateway to all wonder.

Friday, September 9, 2016

My Interests

Health
    Nutrition
        CRON
        Protein-Cycle Diet
    Exercise
        Calisthenics/Bio-mechanics
        Hypertrophy
Cooking
Vegetable Gardening
Meditation
Daoism
    Chinese Characters
Shakespeare
    Elizabethian England
Thoreau
Nietzsche
Whitman
I guess the 19th century (based on the last 3 authors)
Languages
    Esperanto
    Spanish
    I used to crave others, but realized only have so much life.

I once had a really deep interest in time management.  Here are some things I have written on the subject that you might find helpful:

First, Use a Timer to Get More out of Your Time
Beat Procrastination by . . .  Starting
Procrastination Chronicles #3: Dealing with a Bunch of Crap
Productivity to Leave Productivity

Things I'm not interested in:

Whether a presidential candidate is physically healthy.  (didn't just come up in 2016)
What the stock market did today.
What you say you would have done in a situation you weren't in.
Whether you or anyone went to Harvard.
Who gets the inheritance.

Monday, June 27, 2016

Classics Want to Be Free (and Read)

Lip service is paid to the saying "the best things in life are free."  It happens to be true, especially with literature; a great deal of the best things ever written are in the public domain.

Here's some classics that I can personally vouch for being worth reading over and over:

Pride and Prejudice
Walden
Thus Spoke Zarathustra
Siddhartha
Romeo and Juliet
Hamlet
King Lear
MacBeth
Leaves of Grass